Federal Reserve

This week’s economic calendar will not test last week’s supportive footprint until Friday’s Flash PMIs, but we dive headfirst into earnings season and hear from both the Bank of Canada and the ECB ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
An impressive rally in gold this week takes out key resistance levels and, potentially, a very positive weekly close.
Fed Chair Powell has continued to emphasize his rhetoric that an acceleration in inflation through the summer is only expected to be transitory due to expected base data. Still, we didn't want to see the data run away and bring cause for policy to be reactionary.
U.S. benchmarks were pointing higher this morning ahead of both the bell and a long weekend. Tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payroll, but the NYSE is closed and index futures only trade through 8:15 a.m. CT due to the Good Friday holiday.
Constructive hold of support early in Thursday's session set the stage for a friendly Friday. This undeniably brought bullish technical tailwinds due to seller’s exhaustion, shorts covering, and fresh buying hitting the tape. Remember, this is a bull market.
Late last night, a U.S. health agency questioned the validity of AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials, saying the results included outdated data. To make matters worse, Germany followed through and announced a strict 5-day lockdown over Easter.
There’s been much debate about whether or not the reflation efforts would create inflation or if we’re just seeing a “normalization” in rates. We’ll see now, at these levels, if Treasuries pause and consolidate or continue to move lower as yields continue to climb.
It’s Fed Day: the committee’s policy decision, economic outlook, and interest rate projections are due at 1:00 p.m. CT. Yields of longer duration Treasuries are climbing as many analysts say a dovish Fed is simply not enough anymore.
The ECB said it’d purchase bonds at a faster pace through its PEPP program and that it expects yields to remain at their current levels or lower.
The House may vote as early as tomorrow and, if everything stays on track, the bill will be signed by President Biden before the coming weekend.