Is S&P at major top? Major Market Ranges for the Week of Aug. 27

August 24, 2018 09:10 AM

The coming week, Aug. 27-31, sets up trending pivot and range statistics math in the Eurodollar, Japanese yen and Gold. The S&P looks toppy to me- as in an unidirectional steamroller with tight, narrow pivots and a narrow range.

If one adds in the inverted hammer candlesticks on the daily chart that are outside my threshold zone of narrowed Bollinger Bands, the first fast, furious, news-induced S&P demolition target could be at 2,838. The 2,846 area is my typical target, being in the center of the narrowed Bollinger Bands, but the untouched, magnetic Monthly Median Pivot is the thirty-eight handle could strongly pull some bad news drop another thrust lower. My range-projected extreme is at/under 2,834, representing my best guess of next week’s low (trading targets are higher, softer, easier to reach).

The Dow Futures (YM) are already taking out lows and failing to make new highs, despite the Russell 2000 Index making all-time highs, taking out the high of the monthly chart inverted hammer bear candle. Thus, due to discrepancy between indices, and overall risk of being a bear in positive-drift markets, my defined-risk trade includes Nadex Binary Options risking under $100, a nice short call spread risking under $500 or straight put with a long call spread as a hedge, or a calendar/diagonal-style spread.   

Otherwise, most other markets were bullish in tandem, higher as I predicted for this week, and are throwing sideways-throwback signals in fast-period understudies, implying they rose too fast and need to throwback or consolidate. Bitcoin and crude oil have some sideways pivot math, also. The euro looks sideways-bearish short-term, but the monthly chart is a red hammer blasting upwards crossing through a 20- and50-day moving average crossover bull signal. Let’s watch how that monthly candle closes Friday, Aug. 31.  

Technical Curiosity

Soybeans have the only iron condor contender for the coming week, if a down thrust occurs to create a wide range in sideways weekly pivots near projected weekly lows. Soybeans gave an inside-breakout pivot setup for this week before going higher, reversing to weekly lows, rejecting the breakout pivot hint/pivot pricing. This week, Soybeans give an inside-breakout lower pivot setup but are already on lows and may do this week in reverse, rejecting this week’s opposite pivot breakout setup. This is due to the extreme valuation candle drop on the monthly chart whose resultant bull hammer signal is valid for the next few months, and price is probing the low hammer tail price zones (see chart). Also, note the chart has overlapping pivot lines, which means a time/range breakout is forming somewhere- weekly/monthly chart traders are playing.

Soybean Futures Hourly illustrating last week’s pivots into this week’s (white lines I marked with an “X”), before the inside breakout higher, presumed from higher pivots did a fake out higher move, reversed sharply and collapsed to probe the low tail of the monthly chart bull candle. The “X” farthest right marks next week’s pivots lower in a market that already made a cascade move lower at a perfect Gann angle and 7-wave Elliott count. So, beans may do the inverse of this week, rejecting the inside breakout lower pivots above! Monthly chart extreme value lows into a bull candle are at play.

List/Tracking of Open Option Spread Trade Ideas:

  • S&P Short:  Sell 2,865/2,860 call spread, asserting price will go/close near/under this level by Friday Aug. 31. It is a range extrema trade off my weekly projections, candles on five time frames, weekly reversal pivots.
  • Ten-year Treasury notes (ZN) long: Monthly chart 121’00; 120’24 hit, close options trade win into September.
  • Gold Long: Open monthly options trade into September Loss presently, end of month expiration.
  • Eurodollar long weekly hammer candle into Sept. end due to monthly ranges, extreme valuation.

Watch for short call spread entries next week, choppiness expected (short call spreads benefit from time decay as well as price cooperation) from sideways pivot math and range status.


Predicted Ranges for the week ending Aug. 31

S&P 500

High: 2864/Low: 2834        

Japanese Yen

High:9041/Low: 8988                 


High:1.161/Low: 1.150


High: $1,205/Low: $1,185

Crude Oil

High: $69.08/ Low: $66.51               


High: $8.82/Low: $8.48

Bitcoin (XBT)

High: $6,680/Low: $6,100


Projected & Actual Ranges for the Week’s Ending Aug. 24 (as of Friday morning)


S&P 500 

High: 2867/Low2820. Actual 2874-2846

Japanese yen

High: 9107/Low: 9026. Actual 9126-8997      


High: 1.1520/Low: 1.137. Actual: 1.164-1.141


High: $1,207/Low: $1,169.Actual $1,208-$1,189

Crude oil

High: $67.02/ Low: $64.19. Actual $68.15-$64.85


High: $9.25/Low: $8.65. Actual $9.07-$8.56

Bitcoin (XTB)

High: $6,875/Low: $6,175. Actual: $6,880-$6,205

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines. His study of financial markets led to his beliefs that investors can be self-directed and that market moves could be predicted using a variety of technical indicators and mathematics. His website is @TrevorSmithCTA